It’s estimated that human adults make about 35,000 decisions a day — the percentage of good decisions depends on the adult. These choices can be as banal as deciding to roll or crumple toilet paper or ...

Animals living in groups make movement decisions that depend, among other factors, on social interactions with other group members. Our present understanding of social rules in animal collectives is ...

A man went on an airplane ride. Unfortunately, he fell out. Fortunately, he had a parachute on. Unfortunately, the parachute did not open. Fortunately, there was a haystack below him, directly in the ...

When our brains don't have a good intuition for reasoning with numbers, explicit probabilistic thinking can lead to improved decision-making. A man went on an airplane ride. Unfortunately, he fell out ...

First, we need to estimate the pre-test probability that asymptomatic Massachusetts residents have Covid-19. We know that in the state approximately 2% of all tests for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that ...

Bayes Theorem is a time-tested way to use probabilities to solve complex problems. Bayes Theorem is the handiwork of an 18th-century minister and statistician named Thomas Bayes, first released in a ...

Mike Lee receives relevant research funding from the Australian Research Council, the Australia-Pacific Science Foundation, and Flinders University. Benedict King receives funding from the Australian ...